The April issue of AEI’s Political Report examines exit poll and turnout results from both parties’ presidential primaries thus far. Which voters are more satisfied with their parties’ candidates? How strong is the #NeverTrump camp? What are some of the most interesting stories from the exit polls? This month’s Political Report is your guide to what voters are saying.
- Are you satisfied? In a March ABC News/The Washington Post poll, 48 percent of Republicans said they would be dissatisfied with Donald Trump as the party’s nominee. More than 7 in 10 Democrats said they would be satisfied with either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. Primary exits polls thus far show that Democratic voters have been more satisfied with their winning candidate than Republicans have been with theirs.
- #NeverTrump? Twenty-one percent of Republicans say they would vote for the opposing party’s candidate or stay home if Donald Trump became the GOP’s nominee (The Huffington Post/YouGov). Republicans were more likely than Democrats to say they would “definitely consider” voting for a third-party or independent candidate if Trump and Clinton were the major party candidates (21 percent versus 13 percent, respectively), but a plurality of both said they would “definitely not consider” doing so (NBC News/The Wall Street Journal).
- Enthusiasm and turnout: At the start of 2016, more Republicans (52 percent) than Democrats (44 percent) said they were paying “a lot” of attention to the presidential campaign (CBS News). Republicans have also expressed more enthusiasm about voting. So far this year, Republican primary turnout has reached record highs, while Democratic turnout is on average lower than in 2008.
- Insights from the entrance/exit polls: In the states for which the relevant data are available, a majority of Republican voters supported a temporary Muslim ban; 47 percent or more of Republican voters said they felt betrayed by GOP politicians; and more than three-quarters of Democratic primary voters said the US economic system generally favors the wealthy. Among the five states in which the exit pollsters asked about trade, Democrats in Illinois, Mississippi, and North Carolina were more likely than Republicans to say trade creates jobs.
- April issues: As Tax Day and Earth Day approach, 74 percent of Republicans and 66 percent of Democrats say taxes are “extremely” or “very important” to their vote for president. Twenty-one percent of Republicans, compared with 69 percent of Democrats, gave that response about climate change (Gallup).
More on the research HERE.
