CHICAGO – Republicans and conservatives in Illinois may be torn about how to vote at the top of the November 6th ballot, but once past the statewide offices, Congressional races could be the next driving factor for getting red voters to the polls in the mid-term election.
The Left is pouring money and seemingly boundless energy into turning district voters against longtime conservative Congress members.
Three Illinois Congressional races drawing the Cook Political Report's attention are two where Trump lost in 2016 and one where he won. Cook Report says post-Kavanaugh, the polls are showing tightening races:
Republicans suddenly feel more confident about several incumbents who have previously been tied or behind but have the luxury of sitting in Trump-won districts: Reps. Mike Bost (IL-12), John Faso (NY-19), Claudia Tenney (NY-22) and Steve Chabot (OH-01). They're also newly optimistic about Toss Up open seats in Trump country, like Kansas's 2nd CD and North Carolina's 9th CD.
However, it shouldn't come as a shock that the highly charged Supreme Court fracas has barely moved the needle in high-income, Clinton-won suburbs. Republicans are especially concerned about Reps. Mimi Walters (CA-45) and Peter Roskam (IL-06), who now appear to be narrowly behind. In fact, there's evidence the map was beginning to polarize before the Kavanaugh fight.
Republicans continue to face especially strong headwinds in states where gubernatorial races aren't going well for them. Illinois, where GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner trails by more than 15 points is a particular concern as Roskam and Rep. Randy Hultgren (IL-14) face an onslaught of Democratic cash in the Chicago media market.
Democrats have the money to advertise. Republicans have more reason to get out to vote. Question is, could it be that the very Kavanaugh controversy ends up benefiting a Republican governor that distanced himself from the mess end up helping him?
Per district, the Cook Report says:
IL-06:
"Roskam … is now trailing scientist and energy businessman Sean Casten in both parties' polling. And Roskam's attacks on Casten don't seem to be sticking. These high-income Chicago suburbs are unraveling for the GOP .. it voted for Hillary Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent in 2016. Roskam, the former House GOP chief deputy whip, voted for his party's healthcare and tax bills. And now, Casten and the DCCC are pounding Roskam for voting with President Trump "94 percent of the time."
…
"The GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund used August and September to go nuclear on Casten … But while the NRCC is continuing to spend out of loyalty to Roskam, the CLF hasn't seen much return on its investment and may opt out.
"Casten announced raising $2.6 million in the third quarter alone, more than Roskam had in cash on hand at the end of June. But the real GOP fear is that Gov. Bruce Rauner is polling so badly in his reelection race that he could drag others down with him. This race is far from over, but Casten is the favorite today.
IL-14:
"A Siena College/New York Times poll taken the past week showed Hultgren leading Democratic nurse and former HHS official Lauren Underwood 47 percent to 43 percent. But the poll also found the four-term GOP incumbent unknown to 42 percent of voters, an ominous omen for a down-the-line conservative in a heavily suburban seat that voted for President Trump just 48 percent to 45 percent.
"When Republican strategists express worry about getting buried by a 'green wave' of Democratic cash, the expensive Chicago media market could be a prime example. Hultgren, not known for his pizzazz, had $1 million on hand at the end of June. But the 32-year old Underwood raised $2 million in the most recent fundraising quarter and could outspend Hultgren considerably in the final stretch.
"Underwood has been up on air since mid-September with an ad talking about her pre-existing heart condition and how Hultgren's vote to repeal the ACA inspired her to run. This week, Hultgren and the NRCC felt compelled to respond with ads accusing Underwood of being "bankrolled" by state House Speaker Mike Madigan's machine and supporting a "government takeover of healthcare.
And how these downstate votes could be affected by Governor Rauner:
"The big danger for Illinois Republicans: Gov. Bruce Rauner is getting trounced in his reelection race and could drag others down with him. A new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics poll found Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot in Illinois 57 percent to 35 percent. That's particularly treacherous for GOP members who lack their own strong brand, such as Hultgren."
