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Home Illinois News

Oberweis survey shows he’s favored to win primary, but that’s not the whole story

Illinois Review by Illinois Review
September 20, 2019
in Illinois News
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Screen Shot 2019-09-20 at 5.20.24 PMGURNEE – Thursday, the competition between two state senators seeking the Republican nomination to challenge freshman Democrat Lauren Underwood in the 14th CD took on a feisty tone. 

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Calling Republican State Senator Jim Oberweis a "perennial candidate," his Republican colleague, State Senator Sue Rezin's campaign mocked poll findings Oberweis released and were published by McHenry County blog. (The blog post is available HERE)  

According to Rezin's campaign, the poll Oberweis conducted showed him losing to incumbent Lauren Underwood, 47 to 38 percent. It also shows his name recognition as much higher than Rezin's. But, the big criticism about Oberweis' poll conducted by McLaughlin Associates is two-pronged: 1. It was taken among only 200 voters in the 14th CD, and 2. The survey taker doesn't have a great history of reporting voters' positions.

So, we asked for a copy of this provocative poll, and Oberweis himself obliged Illinois Review with a copy to see for ourselves – but to use only as background.

"For the primary, I am over 50% and no one else is out of single digits. I would expect that to narrow somewhat as we get closer to the primary and competitors send out their material," Oberweis said. "I have the highest Favorable rating I have had in any poll.  I am over 50% while Underwood is under 45%. I have the lowest Unfavorable rating I have had in any poll.  My unfavorable rating is under 20% while Underwood’s is over 20%. I have a ten point higher name recognition in the district than Underwood."

Then, Oberweis said, "While Underwood would have a single digit lead right now without voters hearing the issues, on the 'Informed Ballot' I have a double digit lead."

That's exactly what the poll results showed. Oberweis said he needs to raise money to get information to the voters. If he can do that in a district where Trump won in 2018, Oberweis believes he can win. 

Rezin's response wasn't as optimistic. Indeed, the polling shows Oberweis losing to Underwood if he is unable to inform 14th CD voters about the difference in their political views – Underwood extreme left, and Oberweis, well, more conservative than Underwood.

"Again, Oberweis has lost six out of six races for Congress, US Senate and Governor. Oberweis can watch, wait and learn about how Rezin’s effective campaign will surge past him because Sue Rezin has done so again and again and again and again in highly competitive legislative campaigns," Rezin's campaign said. 

Criticizing the pollster, the results and Oberweis' campaign record, Rezin forgets to mention that Oberweis did win one race – the one that allowed him to be a state senator, just as she is.

Rezin burned bridges with Illinois conservatives when she voted for the Equal Right Amendment in the last session- an effort that would allow any and all abortions nationwide if it were to pass and amend the US Constitution.

But what neither Rezin or Oberweis revealed is that the poll mentioned only three GOP primary names – Oberweis, Rezin and Ted Gradel, a renowned college football player that lives in the district. The survey did not mention James Marter who has been active online and at conservative gatherings, or two other candidates whose names could also appear on the ballot. 

Onlookers say the 14th CD race is a disaster in the making, and the Democrats are giddy about what they think could happen there. Illinois' 6th and 14th CD's are considered bellweather races – and could be crucial in whether the Republicans regain the majority in 2020. 

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