As epidemiologists scramble to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on public health, economists are evaluating its impact on the global economy. Experts in both fields absorb the flurry of data, interpret it through their scientific training and the lens of similar historical events, and endeavor to recommend a path forward. Yet everyone knows that ultimately we are in unchartered waters, and possible outcomes vary widely.
As an economist, I am stunned by the nearly 10 million jobless claims in the United States over the past two weeks. But the dramatic monetary and fiscal reactions are nearly as stunning as the loss of jobs. As society grapples with the economic whiplash of employment collapse and the accompanying federal response, it’s important to assess what is occurring in light of first principles.
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